Our model rates every club's attack and defence from its recent results, weighting recent matches more, and works out the chance of every possible score. Every number on this site is read from that. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our probability: the price that breaks even if our forecast is right. A bookmaker's price is usually lower, because it includes the bookmaker's margin. Every forecast is sealed before kick-off and can never be changed; after the match it is scored on the Results page, right or wrong. Tested on past seasons, our forecasts beat simple averages by 10 to 15% in every league, and are still slightly less accurate than bookmakers' closing odds.