Touchline: football odds

Independent football forecasts, with probabilities, fair odds and a public results record.

How it works

Our model rates every club's attack and defence from its recent results, weighting recent matches more, and works out the chance of every possible score. Every number on this site is read from that. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our probability: the price that breaks even if our forecast is right. A bookmaker's price is usually lower, because it includes the bookmaker's margin. Every forecast is sealed before kick-off and can never be changed; after the match it is scored on the Results page, right or wrong. Tested on past seasons, our forecasts beat simple averages by 10 to 15% in every league, and are still slightly less accurate than bookmakers' closing odds.

48 matches sealed Sat 03 Oct, 20:43 UK

Big number: our fair odds, not a bookmaker's price. Small: our probability. 1 home win · X draw · 2 away win · 1X home or draw · X2 draw or away · 12 either team wins.

Big games

BundesligaFri 19:30

Dortmund

Werder Bremen

Fair odds · probability

1.431 · 70%5.33X · 19%8.742 · 11%

Likeliest score 2-0 · 11%Expected corners 6 – 3

Premier LeagueSat 17:30

Man United

Tottenham

Fair odds · probability

1.931 · 52%4.04X · 25%4.272 · 23%

Likeliest score 1-1 · 12%Expected corners 7 – 5

Premier LeagueSun 16:30

Liverpool

Man City

Fair odds · probability

3.081 · 32%3.78X · 26%2.432 · 41%

Likeliest score 1-1 · 12%Expected corners 5 – 5

Friday 9 October

Fair odds · result1X2Fair odds · double chance1XX212LikeliestscoreExpectedcorners

19:30GERDortmundWerder Bremenearly

1.4370%

5.3319%

8.7411%

1.1389%

3.3130%

1.2381%

2-011% chance

6 – 3DOR more · 71%

19:45FRALensLyonearly

2.2744%

3.8326%

3.3530%

1.4370%

1.7956%

1.3574%

1-112% chance

6 – 4LEN more · 67%

20:00ESPMálagaEspanyolearly

3.7027%

3.5129%

2.2544%

1.8056%

1.3773%

1.4071%

0-114% chance

5 – 4MAL more · 55%

Saturday 10 October

Fair odds · result1X2Fair odds · double chance1XX212LikeliestscoreExpectedcorners

12:30ENGArsenalLeedsearly

1.5664%

4.2923%

8.0512%

1.1488%

2.8036%

1.3077%

2-013% chance

6 – 3ARS more · 76%

13:00ESPRayoAthleticearly

2.7736%

3.3830%

2.9134%

1.5266%

1.5664%

1.4270%

1-114% chance

5 – 5ATH more · 46%

14:00ITAGenoaFiorentinaearly

3.1032%

3.5728%

2.5240%

1.6660%

1.4868%

1.3972%

1-113% chance

4 – 4GEN more · 45%

14:30GERMainzLeverkusenearly

3.7826%

3.8726%

2.1048%

1.9152%

1.3674%

1.3574%

1-112% chance

5 – 5B04 more · 54%

14:30GERPaderbornStuttgartearly

3.9825%

3.9725%

2.0150%

1.9950%

1.3475%

1-112% chance

4 – 6STU more · 66%

14:30GERUnion BerlinElversbergearly

6.3816%

4.6621%

1.5963%

2.6937%

1.1984%

1.2779%

1-110% chance

7 – 3UNB more · 80%

14:30GERHoffenheimHamburgearly

1.7358%

4.4922%

5.0720%

1.2580%

2.3842%

1.2978%

1-110% chance

6 – 4HOF more · 73%

14:30GERAugsburgBayernearly

10.510%

6.6315%

1.3375%

4.0625%

1.1190%

1.1885%

0-29% chance

4 – 7BAY more · 75%

15:00ENGSunderlandBrightonearly

3.0932%

3.5029%

2.5639%

1.6461%

1.4868%

1.4071%

1-114% chance

4 – 5BRI more · 53%

15:00ENGChelseaBournemouthearly

2.1746%

3.9325%

3.5128%

1.4072%

1.8654%

1.3475%

1-112% chance

6 – 5CHE more · 58%

15:00ENGIpswichFulhamearly

4.7021%

3.9425%

1.8753%

2.1447%

1.2779%

1.3475%

1-112% chance

4 – 6FUL more · 61%

15:00ENGAston VillaBrentfordearly

2.3942%

3.7727%

3.1632%

1.4668%

1.7258%

1.3673%

1-112% chance

6 – 4AVL more · 64%

15:15ESPAlavésAtlético Madridearly

3.7727%

3.7527%

2.1447%

1.8853%

1.3673%

1-113% chance

5 – 5ALA more · 46%

16:15FRALilleLe Havreearly

1.5664%

4.3923%

7.7013%

1.1587%

2.7936%

1.3077%

1-014% chance

6 – 3LIL more · 71%

17:00ITAInterParmaearly

1.2978%

6.6415%

13.67%

1.0893%

4.4622%

1.1885%

2-014% chance

8 – 3INT more · 86%

17:30ENGMan UnitedTottenhamearly

1.9352%

4.0425%

4.2723%

1.3177%

2.0848%

1.3375%

1-112% chance

7 – 5MUN more · 60%

17:30GERLeipzigFrankfurtearly

1.8554%

4.5122%

4.2324%

1.3176%

2.1846%

1.2978%

1-19% chance

6 – 4LEI more · 65%

17:30ESPBarcelonaGetafeearly

1.2779%

6.9314%

15.27%

1.0793%

4.7621%

1.1786%

2-014% chance

7 – 3BAR more · 83%

19:45ITANapoliFrosinoneearly

1.7158%

4.2224%

5.5718%

1.2282%

2.4042%

1.3176%

1-012% chance

7 – 4NAP more · 73%

19:45FRABrestAngersearly

1.9352%

3.8126%

4.5722%

1.2878%

2.0848%

1.3674%

1-112% chance

5 – 4BRS more · 64%

19:45FRALorientParis FCearly

2.9134%

3.7027%

2.5939%

1.6361%

1.5266%

1.3773%

1-113% chance

5 – 4LOR more · 47%

19:45FRAPSGLe Mansearly

1.3673%

6.1816%

9.5310%

1.1290%

3.7527%

1.1984%

2-010% chance

8 – 2PSG more · 92%

19:45FRAMonacoToulouseearly

1.8056%

4.3123%

4.7321%

1.2779%

2.2544%

1.3077%

1-111% chance

5 – 4MON more · 57%

20:00ESPReal MadridVillarrealearly

1.5166%

5.4618%

6.4915%

1.1885%

2.9734%

1.2282%

2-110% chance

7 – 3RMA more · 76%

Sunday 11 October

Fair odds · result1X2Fair odds · double chance1XX212LikeliestscoreExpectedcorners

11:30ITAComoRomaearly

2.9634%

3.5628%

2.6338%

1.6162%

1.5166%

1.3972%

1-113% chance

4 – 3COM more · 60%

13:00ESPElcheCelta Vigoearly

2.4840%

3.9825%

2.8935%

1.5365%

1.6760%

1.3475%

1-112% chance

4 – 3ELC more · 52%

14:00ENGHullEvertonearly

2.0848%

3.3430%

4.5322%

1.2878%

1.9252%

1.4370%

1-114% chance

5 – 4HUL more · 53%

14:00ENGCrystal PalaceNottm Forestearly

2.7037%

3.4229%

2.9734%

1.5166%

1.5963%

1.4171%

1-114% chance

5 – 4CRY more · 53%

14:00ITALecceBolognaearly

5.1020%

3.6627%

1.8853%

2.1347%

1.2480%

1.3873%

0-115% chance

4 – 5BOL more · 53%

14:00ITALazioMonzaearly

1.5664%

4.5822%

7.1614%

1.1686%

2.7936%

1.2878%

1-013% chance

6 – 3LAZ more · 69%

14:00FRANiceStrasbourgearly

2.7936%

3.8426%

2.6338%

1.6162%

1.5664%

1.3574%

1-112% chance

5 – 4NIC more · 58%

14:30GERKölnGladbachearly

2.5939%

3.8826%

2.8136%

1.5564%

1.6361%

1.3574%

1-112% chance

6 – 4KOE more · 67%

15:15ESPReal SociedadDeportivoearly

2.3642%

3.7926%

3.2031%

1.4569%

1.7358%

1.3674%

1-113% chance

7 – 4RSO more · 73%

16:15FRARennesAuxerreearly

1.8853%

4.1824%

4.3823%

1.3077%

2.1447%

1.3176%

1-111% chance

6 – 4REN more · 66%

16:30ENGLiverpoolMan Cityearly

3.0832%

3.7826%

2.4341%

1.7059%

1.4868%

1.3674%

1-112% chance

5 – 5LIV more · 47%

16:30GERFreiburgSchalkeearly

2.6438%

3.6028%

2.9134%

1.5266%

1.6162%

1.3872%

1-113% chance

6 – 3FRE more · 77%

17:00ITASassuoloMilanearly

4.3923%

4.1124%

1.8953%

2.1247%

1.2977%

1.3276%

1-112% chance

4 – 5MIL more · 49%

17:30ESPReal BetisOsasunaearly

1.7258%

4.3023%

5.3319%

1.2381%

2.3842%

1.3077%

1-012% chance

6 – 4BET more · 65%

19:45ITACagliariJuventusearly

5.2719%

3.9026%

1.8155%

2.2445%

1.2381%

1.3574%

0-114% chance

4 – 6JUV more · 59%

19:45FRATroyesMarseilleearly

10.110%

6.2516%

1.3574%

3.8626%

1.1190%

1.1984%

0-211% chance

5 – 4TRO more · 53%

20:00ESPRacing SantanderValenciaearly

3.1931%

4.0625%

2.2744%

1.7956%

1.4669%

1.3375%

1-111% chance

5 – 6VAL more · 54%

Monday 12 October

Fair odds · result1X2Fair odds · double chance1XX212LikeliestscoreExpectedcorners

17:30ITAAtalantaVeneziaearly

1.3574%

5.8117%

11.39%

1.1091%

3.8426%

1.2183%

2-014% chance

6 – 3ATA more · 76%

19:45ITATorinoUdineseearly

2.6937%

3.5728%

2.8735%

1.5465%

1.5963%

1.3972%

1-113% chance

5 – 4TOR more · 55%

20:00ENGCoventryNewcastleearly

7.5913%

4.6621%

1.5365%

2.8935%

1.1587%

1.2779%

0-211% chance

5 – 5NEW more · 46%

20:00ESPLevanteSevillaearly

2.2245%

3.9325%

3.3830%

1.4270%

1.8255%

1.3475%

1-112% chance

5 – 5SEV more · 46%